ThetaGrade Fear & Greed
Our Stocks gauge reads 33 (Fear), -6 on the day. Our Futures gauge reads 45 (Neutral), -5. These are ThetaGrade’s own composites, built from our own inputs and weights and scaled 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). They describe market mood, not what happens next.
Data as of .
Stocks
33
Fear
Daily change: -6 · Previous 39 · 1 week ago 42 · 1 month ago 33
1-year range of our score: 11–77 · as of
Futures
45
Neutral
Daily change: -5 · Previous 50 · 1 week ago 54 · 1 month ago 50
1-year range of our score: 22–65 · as of
Stocks gauge: 1-year history
Futures gauge: 1-year history
What’s driving the Stocks gauge
| Input (our derived signal) | Weight | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Breadth: share of our universe above its 50- and 200-day averages | 25% | Fear (~30) |
| S&P 500 ETF vs its 125-day average | 15% | Extreme Fear (~15) |
| Net new 52-week highs vs lows (10-day average) | 15% | Fear (~35) |
| Volatility: our S&P 500 ETF 20-day realized volatility, level and 5-day trend (inverted) | 15% | Greed (~65) |
| Options skew (S&P 500 ETF put vs call implied vol) | 10% | building history: weight renormalized until ~60 sessions are collected |
| Stocks vs bonds: 20-day return, S&P 500 ETF minus long Treasury ETF | 10% | Neutral (~50) |
| Credit appetite: 20-day return, high-yield bond ETF minus 7-10y Treasury ETF | 10% | Extreme Fear (~5) |
What’s driving the Futures gauge
| Input (our derived signal) | Weight | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| CFTC COT large-speculator net position, 3-year range: E-mini S&P, E-mini Nasdaq, gold, crude | 40% | Neutral (~45) |
| Volatility: our 20-day realized volatility of Nasdaq-100, gold and crude ETF proxies vs 1-year range (inverted) | 30% | Greed (~60) |
| Trend: S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, gold and crude ETF proxies vs their 50- and 200-day averages | 30% | Fear (~30) |
Positioning data: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Commitments of Traders (public domain), credited to the CFTC. Futures trend and volatility use liquid ETF proxies because futures prices are licensed.
How it’s built: Fear & Greed methodology. Updated each weekday after the close. Crypto has its own gauge: Crypto.
FAQ
- What goes into the ThetaGrade Fear & Greed gauges?
- Each gauge is ThetaGrade’s own composite. Stocks: breadth, momentum, new highs vs lows, realized volatility, options skew, stocks vs bonds and credit appetite. Futures: CFTC positioning, realized volatility and trend. Each input is ranked against its own history and the ranks are blended with our own weights into one 0–100 reading. The full recipe is on our methodology page.
- Is a low reading a buy signal?
- No. The gauge is educational context about sentiment. Extreme readings can last, and markets can keep falling or rising. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
- Why do some inputs say “building history”?
- Options skew comes from data we started collecting recently. Until we have enough history its weight is spread across the other inputs.
Not financial advice. ThetaGrade’s own derived readings; no third-party prices or index levels are shown.